Delhi Assembly elections: How political showdown over Ambedkar’s legacy could impact 12 reserved seats

With the Delhi Assembly elections slated for early February next year, the alleged disrespect of Dr BR Ambedkar by Home Minister Amit Shah during the Constitution debate in Parliament has set a new narrative in the Capital’s politics. The issue has become a focal point for all the three main political parties of Delhi – AAP, Congress, and the BJP – seeking to shape and strengthen their positions. The accusations and counter-accusations surrounding Ambedkar’s legacy are expected to influence the electoral discourse, particularly in the 12 Scheduled Caste reserved seats out of the total 70 in Delhi.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has struggled to wrest power in Delhi for 26 years — initially from the Congress and more recently from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) — finds itself in a challenging position primarily due to its lacklustre performance in constituencies with significant Dalit voters. Dr BR Ambedkar, a revered figure among Dalits, represents an important symbol of empowerment and rights for the community. Therefore, the perception of any disregard towards his contributions could further alienate this crucial voter base from the BJP. At the same time, the BJP is trying to blame its political opponents, claiming that they were never serious about honouring Ambedkar’s legacy.

The Congress and AAP, each keen to capitalise on the sentiment of alleged disrespect of Ambedkar, are likely to position themselves as champions of Dalit rights and welfare. This narrative, they feel, could be instrumental in winning these reserved constituencies.

With almost one sixth of its population comprising Dalits, the community plays an important role in Delhi’s politics.

Delhi’s cosmopolitan nature presents an intriguing mosaic of diverse communities, with Dalits comprising a significant 16.7 per cent of its populace. Within this tapestry, certain areas stand out due to their concentrated Dalit population. In North West Delhi’s Sultanpuri assembly constituency, 44 per cent of voters are Dalit, making it the area with the highest representation. Close behind is Karol Bagh, where nearly 41 per cent of the electorate belongs to the Scheduled Caste community. Additionally, constituencies such as Gokalpur, Seemapuri, Mangolpuri, Trilokpuri, and Ambedkar Nagar each have over 30 per cent Dalit residents, reflecting their substantial presence across Delhi.

The diverse nature of Delhi, with its mix of locals and migrants from other states, adds layers of diversity to its Dalit population. This diversity manifests itself through numerous sub-castes, such as Jatavs, Balmikis, Khateeks, Raigars, Kolis, Bairwas, and Dhobis, each with distinct cultural identities and regional dominances. Among these, the Jatavs stand out as the most populous group, constituting nearly half of Delhi’s Dalit population according to rough estimates.

Dr BR Ambedkar remains a towering figure of inspiration across all Dalit sub-communities. However, his influence is particularly profound among the Jatavs, who, besides being prominent in urban settings, also maintain a strong presence in Delhi’s rural landscapes.

HOW DID THE 12 RESERVED CONSTITUENCIES VOTE IN THE LAST 4 ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS?

While examining the voting trends of the 12 reserved constituencies over the last four assembly elections, a significant political shift becomes evident. Initially, in 2008, the Congress, led by Sheila Dikshit, secured nine out of the 12 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claimed just two seats, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) captured one seat. This distribution highlighted Congress’s former stronghold in these constituencies when AAP was not a player in Delhi.

However, by the 2013 election, the political landscape began to transform dramatically with the emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). AAP bagged 9 out of these 12 seats and was a big reason why it stood second behind the BJP in that assembly polls. The BJP maintained its hold on two seats, but Congress managed to retain just one seat out of 9 it held during the last tenure. (Graphics)

The 2015 assembly elections further cemented AAP’s dominance. The party achieved a sweeping victory, winning all 12 reserved constituencies, effectively nullifying the presence of both Congress and BJP in those seats. This election signalled the Schedule Caste voters’ definitive shift toward AAP, mainly due to the promises like free electricity and water Kejriwal made.

The 2020 elections reinforced this trend, with AAP once again clinching all 12 seats. This consistent performance across two consecutive elections illustrated AAP’s entrenched popularity, especially among the Dalit voters. AAP’s gain came mainly as a loss for Congress, but at the same time, even the BJP lost a significant Dalit vote to AAP.

BJP EYES DALIT VOTES TO WREST POWER FROM AAP IN NEXT POLLS

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is making a concerted effort to seize power in Delhi, setting its sights squarely on the 2025 assembly elections. The party aims to unseat the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has maintained a stronghold in the capital thanks to popular social and economic initiatives. The BJP recognises the pivotal role of Dalit voters in shaping electoral outcomes, focusing significant efforts on this community to sway support in its favour.

To court the Dalit electorate, the BJP is actively engaging in outreach activities, organising programs, and targeting slum clusters and JJ Colonies where the Dalit population is significant. This strategy reflects a bid to directly connect with these communities, address their concerns, and present the BJP as a viable alternative to AAP’s government.

Meanwhile, the Congress, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, is also vying for Dalit support. Gandhi has been emphasising the importance of the Constitution in his campaign speeches, hoping to resonate with voters who view it as a safeguard of their rights and freedoms.

However, both the BJP and Congress face an uphill battle, needing to significantly erode the AAP’s base among the Dalit community. Kejriwal’s administration has gained popularity due to its targeted schemes that aim to improve the social and economic conditions of marginalised groups, including Dalits. These initiatives have endeared AAP to many voters, posing a challenge to any opposition looking to make electoral gains.

As the 2025 Delhi assembly election approaches, it is clear that all three parties will dedicate substantial resources and effort to capture the support of the Scheduled Caste community. The battle promises to be fiercely contested, with each party striving to outmanoeuvre the others and secure the crucial votes necessary for victory.

WHAT HAPPENED IN HARYANA POLLS?

In the Haryana assembly elections earlier this year, a shift was observed as the Dalit vote base, traditionally loyal to the Congress, leaned towards the BJP. This change proved pivotal for the BJP, enabling them to form a government for the third consecutive term in the state. Haryana, Delhi’s closest neighbour, has long been a state with Dalit communities playing a crucial role in shaping electoral outcomes. Historically, the Congress party enjoyed strong support from the Scheduled Caste population in the region, but this year’s elections marked a departure from tradition.

The BJP capitalised on the congress’ internal factionalism by presenting a united front and emphasising development and inclusion, which resonated with the SC voters. Buoyed by their success in Haryana, the BJP is now eyeing Delhi, aiming to address its longstanding Dalit woes in the national capital.