The 2026 Senate map starts to come into focus: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman breaks down the state of the 2026 Senate map as campaigns across the country start to get off the ground. Plus, Ben Kamisar finds another example of how President Donald Trump has remade the Republican Party in our most recent poll.
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— Adam Wollner
The 2026 Senate map starts to take shape
The next battle for the Senate majority has come into clearer focus in recent weeks, with candidates in both parties making their intentions known in high-profile races across the map.
As Bridget Bowman reports, Democrats face an uphill climb to take control of the chamber in the 2026 elections: The party must reach into GOP territory to net the four seats they need, while also defending competitive seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. Republicans, meanwhile, are looking to expand their 53-47 majority while defending blue-leaning Maine and battleground North Carolina.
Here’s the latest on who’s in, who’s out and who still needs to make a decision in the top Senate contests of the cycle.
Michigan: The latest piece of the puzzle fell into place Monday, with former Rep. Mike Rogers becoming the first major Republican to jump into the Michigan Senate race. He quickly snagged endorsements from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott. Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in last year’s Senate race by less than 1 percentage point.
On the Democratic side, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow entered the race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters last week. Several other Democrats, including Rep. Haley Stevens and former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed, are also considering bids.
New Hampshire: Former New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu announced last week he would not run for Senate, despite encouragement from President Donald Trump. Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown is weighing a bid in the state, where he lost a 2014 Senate race.
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas launched his Senate campaign last week, and fellow Rep. Maggie Goodlander is also still considering a run for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
North Carolina: While former Rep. Wiley Nickel announced last week he would take on Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, Democrats are waiting on former Gov. Roy Cooper to decide if will run against one of the party’s top targets next year.
Maine: It’s a similar story for the party in Maine, with Democratic Gov. Janet Mills not ruling out a campaign against GOP Sen. Susan Collins. Democrats have struggled to defeat Collins even as they’ve consistently carried Maine at the presidential level.
Georgia: Likewise, the GOP is waiting on a major shoe to drop in Georgia. National Republicans have been recruiting Gov. Brian Kemp to run against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, one of their top targets on the map. If he doesn’t, it would likely open the floodgates for Republicans to enter the contest.
Read more from Bridget on the Senate map, including the latest from Minnesota, Ohio and Texas →
Homeward bound: We could see more campaign announcements over the two-week congressional recess, with lawmakers back in their home states and districts.
Alexandra Marquez reports that Republicans are largely avoiding holding in-person town halls during this period, as National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson has advised. According to news releases and publicly posted event notices, the majority of town halls and town hall-style events taking place over the congressional recess will be hosted by Democrats.
Youth movement: In addition to the battleground races, there’s also activity bubbling up in Democratic primaries amid dissatisfaction from the base over the direction of the party. Faith Wardwell and Elias Miller write that a crop of candidates in their 20s and 30s is stepping in to challenge older Democrats for their seats in Congress.
A growing number of Republicans identify with the MAGA movement
By Ben Kamisar
Recent polling from NBC News shows how President Donald Trump has consolidated the Republican Party not just around himself, but also around his broader “Make America Great Again” movement.
Thirty-six percent of registered voters identified themselves as MAGA supporters in an NBC News poll conducted in March. It’s a significant increase from past polling — up from 23% of respondents in a merged sample of all of NBC News’ polling throughout 2023, and 27% of respondents in a merged sample of 2024 polling.
The overall share is powered by the 71% of Republicans who now call themselves MAGA supporters.
NBC News’ polling already showed signs of a shift afoot between the beginning of the 2024 presidential primary and the final weeks before Election Day, as the GOP consolidated around Trump. In January 2024, days after Trump won nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, just 20% of registered voters said they aligned with the MAGA movement. But in NBC News’ combined polling in October and early November 2024, that number ticked up to 29%.
A shift among Republicans moving more into Trump’s camp is primarily driving this movement, with a 16-point increase in GOPers identifying with the MAGA movement between the two polls right before the 2024 election (55%) and March this year (71%). There’s also been a similar shift among college-educated men, from 21% in 2024 to 37% in March — also a 16-point increase.
It’s the kind of pro-Trump consolidation that led to him matching his best-ever approval rating (47%) in NBC News’ March poll, though a majority of registered voters, 51%, still disapproved of his job performance.
“All of that shift is coming from Republicans,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies who conducted the survey along with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, of Hart Research Associates.
Read more from Ben →
More on Trump 2.0:Peter Nicholas writes that the chaotic start of Trump’s presidency has been characterized by a rash of reversals and retreats as he hastens to execute his agenda while his party controls both houses of Congress and his political capital is at its peak.
🗞️ Today’s top stories
- ➡️ Deportation fallout: El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele said during an Oval Office meeting with Trump that he would not return Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man the Justice Department said was mistakenly deported to the Central American country, to the U.S. Read more →
- ➡️ Arson attack latest: The man charged in connection with an arson attack at Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s home over the weekend told police he would have beaten the governor with a hammer if he had found him. Read more →
- 🏫 School’s out: Harvard University said it will “not accept” demands made by Trump’s administration amid threats of funding cuts. Read more →
- 🗣️ Tariff talk: Trump said over the weekend that in the next week he would be announcing a tariff on semiconductors, which could affect smartphone and laptop prices. Read more →
- 🩺 The doctor is in: Trump is in “excellent health,” the White House physician wrote after the president’s annual physical. Read more →
- 🎤 Back in action: Former President Joe Biden will deliver his first public speech since departing the Oval Office at a national conference of the disability aid group Advocates, Counselors and Representatives for the Disabled Tuesday in Chicago. Read more →
- Follow live politics updates →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Bridget Bowman.
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